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COVID-19, Health & The Economy | Munk Debates

EPISODE #19

COVID-19, Health & The Economy

Be it resolved, there is no scenario for reopening the economy that prioritizes economic growth over public health.

Guests
Stephen Roach
Stephen Moore

About this episode

As the global struggle to contain COVID-19 continues, timelines for lockdowns and social distancing measures keep inching forward. In the midst of this new reality, countries are grappling with how to secure both public health and a stalled economy. Some U.S. economists argue that prolonged national shutdowns are too extreme a policy response that risk doing permanent, long-term damage to the economy. Others warn that ending strict social controls too early needlessly puts lives at risk, could prolong the epidemic and cause an even worse economic disaster.

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Guests

Stephen Roach

"A premature relaxation of the containment strategy that is now in place would be reckless, unscientific, and relapse-prone."

Stephen Roach

"A premature relaxation of the containment strategy that is now in place would be reckless, unscientific, and relapse-prone."

Stephen Roach, Ph.D., is a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He was formerly Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s Chief Economist for the bulk of his 30-year career at Morgan Stanley, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. 
 
Mr. Roach’s current teaching and research program focuses on the impacts of Asia on the broader global economy. At Yale, he has introduced new courses for undergraduates and graduate students on the “The Next China” and “The Lessons of Japan.” His writing and research also address trade policy, globalization, the post-crisis policy architecture, and the capital markets implications of global imbalances. 
 
Stephen Roach has long been one of Wall Street’s most influential economists. His work has appeared in academic journals, books, congressional testimony and has been disseminated widely in the domestic and international media. Roach’s opinions on the global economy have been known to shape the policy debate from Beijing to Washington. 
 
His latest book, Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China examines the risks and opportunities of the world’s most important economic relationship of the 21st century. His 2009 book, The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization, analyzes Asia’s economic imbalances and the dangers of the region’s excess dependence on overextended Western consumers. 
 
Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, Mr. Roach served on the research staff of the Federal Reserve Board and was also a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from New York University. Mr. Roach is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Investment Committee of the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the China Advisory Board of the Environmental Defense Fund, and the Economics Advisory Board of the University of Wisconsin.

Stephen Moore

"We have grocery store chains, we have trucking companies...keeping their workforce safe and healthy, but still delivering vital services to our economy. I believe we could do that, in a sound way, with other businesses and not just save our country from this terrible virus, but save our great economic engine."

Stephen Moore

"We have grocery store chains, we have trucking companies...keeping their workforce safe and healthy, but still delivering vital services to our economy. I believe we could do that, in a sound way, with other businesses and not just save our country from this terrible virus, but save our great economic engine."

Stephen Moore is the senior economic contributor for FreedomWorks. Stephen previously served as president of the Club for Growth, chief economist of the Heritage Foundation, and as a member of the Wall Street Journal editorial board.

Stephen Moore served as a Senior Economic Adviser to Donald Trump, where he focused on tax reform, regulatory reform and energy policy. In addition to this role, Moore is a Heritage visiting senior fellow and a Senior Economic Analyst at CNN.

During his career, Moore has served as a senior economist at the Congressional Joint Economic Committee, and as a senior economics fellow at the Cato Institute, where he published dozens of studies on federal and state fiscal policy. He advised the National Economic Commission in 1987, and served as a research director for President Reagan's Commission on Privatization.

Show Notes

You can read Stephen Roach’s article on the economy and the need to privilege pubic health here
 
Stephen Moore spoke of the potential disastrous unemployment rates in the age of COVID-19 if the economy remains shut down. According to a federal reserve estimate released this week, things could get as bad as a 32.1% unemployment rate in the age of COVID-19.
 
Stephen Roach mentioned the use of contact tracing used by some Asian countries to combat the spread of the virus. Here is an article about how it was one of the tools used by South Korea to flatten the curve in that country.

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