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Defence of Taiwan | Munk Debates

SEASON TWO - EPISODE #19

Defence of Taiwan

Be it resolved, there is no credible military defence of Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression.

Guests
Oriana Skylar Mastro
Michael Beckley
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About this episode

China’s takeover of Hong Kong, and its increasingly aggressive military manoeuvres in the South China Sea have many wondering whether Taiwan is the country’s next “reunification” target. While politicians debate whether it’s in the West’s interest to step in, strategists say the more pertinent question is whether a military defence of Taiwan is even possible. China now boasts the world’s largest army, conventional air force, coast guard, and navy. These vast military resources provide Beijing with the capacity to overwhelm Taiwan through a combined amphibious assault using nuclear attack submarines, destroyers, and aircraft carriers, and an airborne assault using strategic stealth bombers, fighters, and helicopters. Some experts argue that it is wishful to think that the US can defend Taiwan militarily from half a world away unless there is a radical reset of American military strategy and posture towards China.

But others contend that despite China’s clear military superiority over Taiwan, the island nation enjoys many advantages when it comes to fending off an invasion. Taiwan’s unique geography and navigational challenges of the Taiwan Strait mean that an amphibious invasion is a daunting task even for a navy the size of China’s. The country has one of the best early warning systems in the world, and combat aircraft sequestered in mountain locations across the island that could repulse a large-scale airborne assault. The almost two million Taiwanese who are trained to defend the country -guerrilla tactics included - vastly outnumber any possible Chinese invasion force. Add in US aircraft carriers, ballistic missiles, armed drones, and high-tech minefields, and a Chinese military conquest of Taiwan could end up handing Beijing its biggest military defeat since WWII.

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Guests

Oriana Skylar Mastro

"China has the most advanced cruise and ballistic program, the largest navy, and one of the strongest air defense umbrellas in the world. Taiwan cannot do this by itself, but the US does not have a credible defence. Our bases in the region are still not resilient and we do not have enough fire power to rain down on advancing forces in the Taiwan Strait."

Oriana Skylar Mastro

"China has the most advanced cruise and ballistic program, the largest navy, and one of the strongest air defense umbrellas in the world. Taiwan cannot do this by itself, but the US does not have a credible defence. Our bases in the region are still not resilient and we do not have enough fire power to rain down on advancing forces in the Taiwan Strait."

Oriana Skylar Mastro is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, war termination, and coercive diplomacy. She is also non-resident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and continues to serve in the United States Air Force Reserve for which she works as a strategic planner at INDOPACOM. For her contributions to U.S. strategy in Asia, she won the Individual Reservist of the Year Award in 2016. She has published widely, including in Foreign Affairs, International Security, International Studies Review, Journal of Strategic Studies, The Washington Quarterly, The National Interest, Survival, and Asian Security. Her book, The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime, (Cornell University Press, 2019), won the 2020 American Political Science Association International Security Section Best Book by an Untenured Faculty Member. She holds a B.A. in East Asian Studies from Stanford University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University.

Michael Beckley

"The invasion of Taiwan would require the biggest and most complex military operation ever. Taiwan will continue to stock up on mobile missile launchers, drones and mines, and maintain an army that can surge tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour, backed by a million strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla style in cities and jungles."

Michael Beckley

"The invasion of Taiwan would require the biggest and most complex military operation ever. Taiwan will continue to stock up on mobile missile launchers, drones and mines, and maintain an army that can surge tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour, backed by a million strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla style in cities and jungles."

Michael Beckley is Associate Professor of political science at Tufts University and Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. His research on China’s rise has received "best article of the year awards" from the American Political Science Association and the International Studies Association and been featured by numerous media including the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, the New York Times, NPR, and the Washington Post. Previously, Michael worked for Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, the U.S. Department of Defense, the RAND Corporation, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He regularly advises offices within the U.S. Intelligence Community and U.S. Department of Defense, Including the National Intelligence Council, the Defense Science Board, and the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment. Michael holds a PhD in political science from Columbia University. His first book, Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower, was recently published by Cornell University Press.

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