, and shelter in place
are some of the terms used during the debate. You can learn about the distinction between these different terms here.
In March of 2020, Dr. John Ioannidis wrote an essay
that went viral on social media in which he questioned the effectiveness of using lockdowns as a tool in the absence of reliable COVID-19 data. In this recent Q&A
, Dr. Ioannidis discusses his updated findings on the prevalence of COVID-19 and the political debate that inevitably ensues. You can find a bibliography of Dr. Ioannidis’ 100+ peer reviewed publications here.
Andrew Noymer has also published extensively, including research about the 1918 influenza epidemic. You can find his bibliography here
and follow him on Twitter @AndrewNoymer
The US Centre for Disease Control tracks the prevalence of COVID-19 cases and deaths here.
During the debate Dr. John Ioannidis suggests that a levelling off of COVID-19 cases is taking place. An ABC news report
about an internal FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) memo supports this view.
During the debate both Dr. John Ioannidis and Andrew Noymer refer to an Imperial College of London modelling study that was published in Nature
. “Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe”
looked at restrictions in 13 European countries up to May 2020 and used disease modelling to predict that 3.2 million people would have died if lockdowns had not been put into place. BBC News
highlights the study’s key findings.
The debate included a discussion on school closures. Dr. John Ioannides argues that schools should be kept open because it is very rare for children to die from COVID-19 and schools do not play a significant role in spreading the virus when compared to other “super spreader” events. Andrew Noymer refers to a recent Centre for Disease Control study
of a sleep over camp in Georgia that found that 260 out of 344 campers and staff tested positive for COVID-19, indicating that young people do play a significant role in transmitting the virus.
Dr. John Ioannidis refers to research by his Stanford University colleague, Nobel-prize winning Michael Levitt, that suggests that the pandemic ended in China not because of the lockdown but because it peaked and that this will also happen in the United States. Levitt’s research indicates that the virus does not follow an exponential growth law and is naturally self-flattening. You can learn more about his research here.