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US Defense of Taiwan | Munk Debates

May 23, 2023

US Defense of Taiwan

Be it Resolved, the United States should publicly pledge to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.

Guests
David Sacks
Michael J. Mazarr
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About this episode

It's no secret that both China and the US are preparing for war. Some American military experts think that an armed conflict between the two superpowers is inevitable and could begin as early as 2025. And while there is widespread agreement among Americans that the US should defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression, there is also widespread disagreement about whether the US government should make a public commitment to do so. Some foreign policy experts argue that strategic ambiguity will signal that an invasion will be met by a weak response, thus bolstering China’s resolve to attack. Strategic clarity in the form of a pledge to defend Taiwan would intimidate Xi Jinping, deter his re-unification ambitions, and send a strong message of support to allies in the region. Other analysts say that a security guarantee by the US could force Xi’s hand and lead to a military conflict that would have otherwise remained hypothetical. The US should focus on deterring China from attacking Taiwan without resorting to military commitments that could spiral into a long, protracted and devastating war with a rising superpower.

Aruging for the motion is David Sacks. He’s a Research Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations, where he specializes in U.S.-China relations.

Argruing against the motion is Michael Mazarr, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He previously served as a special assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.


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Guests

David Sacks

“We have to reckon with a much more assertive, aggressive China under Xi Jinping… our policy of strategic ambiguity will not serve us well in the coming decades.”

David Sacks

“We have to reckon with a much more assertive, aggressive China under Xi Jinping… our policy of strategic ambiguity will not serve us well in the coming decades.”

David Sacks is a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, where his work focuses on U.S.-Taiwan relations, U.S.-China relations, Chinese foreign policy, cross-strait relations, and the political thought of Hans Morgenthau. He directed the CFR independent task force on China's Belt and Road Initiative, chaired by Jack Lew and Gary Roughead. Prior to joining CFR, Sacks worked on political military affairs at the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), which handles the full breadth of the United States’ relationship with Taiwan in the absence of diplomatic ties. Sacks was also a Princeton in Asia fellow in Hangzhou, China. He received his master’s degree in international relations and international economics, with honors, from the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). At SAIS, he was the recipient of the A. Doak Barnett Award, given annually to the most distinguished China Studies graduate. Sacks received his bachelor of arts in political science from Carleton College.

Michael J. Mazarr

“This would be an incredibly destructive war. There's a roster of steps other than public clarity that would be the best way to keep this conflict from falling into that disaster.”

Michael J. Mazarr

“This would be an incredibly destructive war. There's a roster of steps other than public clarity that would be the best way to keep this conflict from falling into that disaster.”

Michael J. Mazarr is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. His primary interests are U.S. defense policy and force structure, disinformation and information manipulation, East Asian security, nuclear weapons and deterrence, and judgment and decisionmaking under uncertainty. He has done extensive work on U.S. strategic competition issues with China and Russia including on a general conception of rivalry, the contest for global influence, disinformation issues, and military operational issues in the Indo-Pacific. Mazarr holds a Ph.D. in public policy from the University of Maryland.

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