Friday Focus: Canada’s trade war heats up and the Iranians escalate to de-escalate

Friday Focus returns from its summer hiatus to unpack two major geopolitical flashpoints.

First, the trade war with the United States—and its consequences. There has been a narrowing of the debate around Carney’s approach. People are being labelled disloyal for dissenting from his strategy, but we need space for differing views. Tariffs are easy to impose and difficult to unwind. Will Trump turn to more punitive measures against Canada—from natural gas pipelines to banking licenses and work visas? The longer this confrontation drags on, the greater the risk that an already heated situation takes an even more dangerous turn.

Then, the Iran war and a sharp escalation over the past week. The Houthis have made major advances in Yemen, seizing critical outposts and tightening their grip on the Red Sea, one of the world’s most important trade routes. After a period of stalemate that was working against Iran, Tehran appears to be pursuing an “escalate to de-escalate” strategy: increasing pressure on the U.S. and driving up oil prices in an effort to force an end to the blockade. Will the U.S. respond by escalating further and increasing the pressure on Iran? How much economic pain can Trump tolerate at home heading into the midterms? And could he simply wake up one day and declare the war over?