US Defense of Taiwan Debate

May 23, 2023

00:00:00

US Defense of Taiwan Debate

Be it Resolved, the United States should publicly pledge to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.

It’s no secret that both China and the US are preparing for war. Some American military experts think that an armed conflict between the two superpowers is inevitable and could begin as early as 2025. And while there is widespread agreement among Americans that the US should defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression, there is also widespread disagreement about whether the US government should make a public commitment to do so.

Some foreign policy experts argue that strategic ambiguity will signal that an invasion will be met by a weak response, thus bolstering China’s resolve to attack. Strategic clarity in the form of a pledge to defend Taiwan would intimidate Xi Jinping, deter his re-unification ambitions, and send a strong message of support to allies in the region. Other analysts say that a security guarantee by the US could force Xi’s hand and lead to a military conflict that would have otherwise remained hypothetical. The US should focus on deterring China from attacking Taiwan without resorting to military commitments that could spiral into a long, protracted and devastating war with a rising superpower.

Arguing for the motion is David Sacks. He’s a Research Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations, where he specializes in U.S.-China relations.

Arguing against the motion is Michael Mazarr, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He previously served as a special assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

“We have to reckon with a much more assertive, aggressive China under Xi Jinping… our policy of strategic ambiguity will not serve us well in the coming decades”

-DAVID SACKS

“This would be an incredibly destructive war. There’s a roster of steps other than public clarity that would be the best way to keep this conflict from falling into that disaster.”

-MICHAEL MAZARR