US Election – Post-Election Analysis
US Election – Post-Election Analysis
How could the mainstream media and their pollsters once again get the U.S. election results so wrong?
The election wasn’t supposed to turn out this way, according to months of American election polling. Survey after survey and breathless media commentary predicted that Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump in popular vote by upwards of 6, 8, even 10 percent. The same polls and media commentators projected the Democrats with winning margins in the key battleground states of Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Idaho. Bullish predictions included a Democratic sweep of Senate, more Democratic seats in the House of Representatives, and Biden flipping the traditional Republican strongholds of Georgia and Texas. So far, none of these predictions came to pass and, instead, a Democratic cakewalk into the White House has morphed into a contested election with possibly weeks, if not months, to go before a winner is officially declared. How did this happen? Why, after 2016, is much of the media, and seemingly the majority of pollsters, so clueless when it comes to fathoming voter’s intentions on election day? Is it time, once and for all, to give up on public opinion polling as predictive tool? What is the effect on democracies of faulty polling and a media only too happy to widely publicize survey results that 2020 would suggest have little real bearing on what voters actually think?
You may also like
January 6, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Trump’s hard power doctrine alienates allies and sets a destabilizing precedent
January 13, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Jerome Powell stands up to Trump and why the West is reluctant to intervene in Iran
January 20, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Trump faces off with NATO allies over Greenland
January 29, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: ICE wants to spread terror and Canada is at the centre of a geopolitical crisis
February 4, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Alberta’s separatist movement gets support from Washington and Canada needs a new security agenda
February 10, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Trump demands half ownership of the Gordie-Howe Bridge and will Carney call a spring election?
February 24, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Trump shakes his fist at the court and will AI take everyone’s jobs?
March 3, 2026