US Election – Post-Election Analysis
US Election – Post-Election Analysis
How could the mainstream media and their pollsters once again get the U.S. election results so wrong?
The election wasn’t supposed to turn out this way, according to months of American election polling. Survey after survey and breathless media commentary predicted that Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump in popular vote by upwards of 6, 8, even 10 percent. The same polls and media commentators projected the Democrats with winning margins in the key battleground states of Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Idaho. Bullish predictions included a Democratic sweep of Senate, more Democratic seats in the House of Representatives, and Biden flipping the traditional Republican strongholds of Georgia and Texas. So far, none of these predictions came to pass and, instead, a Democratic cakewalk into the White House has morphed into a contested election with possibly weeks, if not months, to go before a winner is officially declared. How did this happen? Why, after 2016, is much of the media, and seemingly the majority of pollsters, so clueless when it comes to fathoming voter’s intentions on election day? Is it time, once and for all, to give up on public opinion polling as predictive tool? What is the effect on democracies of faulty polling and a media only too happy to widely publicize survey results that 2020 would suggest have little real bearing on what voters actually think?
You may also like
November 12, 2026
– Watch
America’s Liberal Reckoning Debate
August 28, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Is Canada prepared for the long fight?
September 29, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Is Mark Carney governing like a Conservative?
November 4, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: what the blue tsunami means for the Canada-U.S. trade war
October 28, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: A new generation is reshaping politics around the world
September 16, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Carney opens Canada for business and courts a new European alliance
October 13, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Trump’s gift to Putin and Alberta’s grievance referendum
August 25, 2026
– Listen
Special Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Carney walks away from Trump and turns his Davos speech into action
October 21, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: France’s unrest and the West’s growth problem
September 22, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Is Carney’s momentum pointing to a spring election?
October 6, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Canada’s separatist moment
August 21, 2026