US Election – Post-Election Analysis
US Election – Post-Election Analysis
How could the mainstream media and their pollsters once again get the U.S. election results so wrong?
The election wasn’t supposed to turn out this way, according to months of American election polling. Survey after survey and breathless media commentary predicted that Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump in popular vote by upwards of 6, 8, even 10 percent. The same polls and media commentators projected the Democrats with winning margins in the key battleground states of Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Idaho. Bullish predictions included a Democratic sweep of Senate, more Democratic seats in the House of Representatives, and Biden flipping the traditional Republican strongholds of Georgia and Texas. So far, none of these predictions came to pass and, instead, a Democratic cakewalk into the White House has morphed into a contested election with possibly weeks, if not months, to go before a winner is officially declared. How did this happen? Why, after 2016, is much of the media, and seemingly the majority of pollsters, so clueless when it comes to fathoming voter’s intentions on election day? Is it time, once and for all, to give up on public opinion polling as predictive tool? What is the effect on democracies of faulty polling and a media only too happy to widely publicize survey results that 2020 would suggest have little real bearing on what voters actually think?
You may also like
April 9, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: the end of Pax Americana and the Liberals are within one seat of a majority government
January 29, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: ICE wants to spread terror and Canada is at the centre of a geopolitical crisis
February 10, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Trump demands half ownership of the Gordie-Howe Bridge and will Carney call a spring election?
April 14, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Mark Carney gets his Liberal Majority
February 24, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Trump shakes his fist at the court and will AI take everyone’s jobs?
April 7, 2026
– Watch
Gene Editing Debate
March 3, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Trump strikes Iran without a strategy
February 4, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Alberta’s separatist movement gets support from Washington and Canada needs a new security agenda
March 25, 2026
– Listen
Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: at this point, what is Iran’s incentive to negotiate?
March 31, 2026