Be it resolved, don’t count out President Trump’s re-election bid. He has a compelling path to victory on November 3.

Six weeks to go to one of the most consequential elections in a generation, and the incumbent, President Donald Trump, is facing an increasingly challenging political environment. His Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, has enjoyed a consistent lead in the national polls as well in many key swing states. Add in a pandemic that has killed over two hundred thousand Americans and an economy with 40 million people on unemployment insurance, and the conditions are ripe for a political sea change on November 3. But seasoned election watchers say it’s far too early for the Biden’s campaign to be measuring curtains for the White House. They argue that Trump has maintained his capacity to surprise the pundit class. He has an enthusiastic and loyal base, a highly sophisticated digital campaign tailormade for getting out the vote, and a storm the barricades attitude to campaigning that captivates public and media attention. He has also made surprising inroads with minority voters, notably Hispanics. Throw in a late October surprise vaccine announcement and more good job numbers, and Joe Biden could find himself joining Hilary Clinton as a defeated democratic nominee.