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Beyond Brexit | Munk Debates

SEASON TWO - EPISODE #7

Beyond Brexit

Be it resolved, Britain will boom beyond Brexit.

Guests
Patrick Minford
Ian Goldin
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About this episode

It was a nail-biter, but just days before the UK formally severed its forty-seven-year long membership with the European Union negotiators finally landed a trade deal that takes some of the sting out of Brexit. But critics of Prime Minister Boris Johnson say that Britain will never recover from its decision to go it alone, even with an EU trade deal to soften the impact. The loss of seamless access to the world’s single largest trading bloc is bound to lead to declining exports and foreign investment in the UK and a brain drain of human talent that will impact every aspect of British life. They argue that the isolationary Brexit mindset and uncertainty around the terms of the new relationship with the European Common Market is the opposite of what the UK and world need to tackle the challenges of the post COVID global reality. Brexit supporters are much more optimistic. They argue that regaining control of British sovereignty, including national laws and regulations, trade, and international borders, will lead to a surge in economic activity in the post Brexit era. Freed of stifling bureaucracy and the sclerotic economic realities of present day Europe, Britain can and will return to its roots of being one of the world's great trading nations.

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Guests

Patrick Minford

"The departure from the highly protectionist and interventionist EU will give the UK the opportunity to bring the economy back on track in a free market direction, which will lead to a very good decade or two to come."

Patrick Minford

"The departure from the highly protectionist and interventionist EU will give the UK the opportunity to bring the economy back on track in a free market direction, which will lead to a very good decade or two to come."

Patrick Minford is a  Professor of Applied Economics at Cardiff University, and formerly at the University of Liverpool. He is Chair of Economists for Free Trade. Minford is a former Economic Adviser to Margaret Thatcher. He sits on the advisory team of the TaxPayers’ Alliance (TPA), is a Fellow at the Centre for Brexit Policy and is a Trustee of the Institute of Economic Affairs. He has a Ph.D from the London School of Economics and a B.A. from the University of Oxford. He is the author of After Brexit, What Next? Trade, Regulation and Economic Growth and Should Britain Leave the EU? and many other books and papers. For his services to economics, he was awarded a CBE (Commander of the Order of the British Empire) in 1996.

 

Ian Goldin

"This is the greatest act of self harm the UK has ever undertaken against its own economy, against its own people, and against the whole idea of Great Britain being a United Kingdom."

Ian Goldin

"This is the greatest act of self harm the UK has ever undertaken against its own economy, against its own people, and against the whole idea of Great Britain being a United Kingdom."

Ian Goldin is Professor of Globalisation and Development at the University of Oxford, Professorial Fellow at Balliol College, Oxford University, Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technological and Economic Change and founding Director of the Oxford Martin School. Ian previously was Vice President of the World Bank and the Group’s Director of Policy, after serving as Chief Executive of the Development Bank of Southern Africa and Economic Advisor to President Nelson Mandela. Ian has served as Principal Economist at the EBRD and the Director of the Trade and Sustainable Growth Programmes at the OECD Development Centre. He has a MSc from the London School of Economics, and an MA and DPhil from the University of Oxford. Goldin has been knighted by the French Government and received numerous awards. He is the author of twenty-two books, including the recently published Terra Incognita: 100 Maps to Survive the Next 100 Years. His previous books include Age of Discovery: Navigating the Storms of Our Second Renaissance and The Butterfly Defect, in which he predicted that a pandemic was the most likely cause of the next financial crisis. He has authored and presented three BBC Documentary Series After The Crash; Will AI Kill Development? and forthcoming The Pandemic that Changed the World. He has been featured on BBCHardTalk and all leading global media outlets.  He provides advisory and consultancy services to the IMF, UN, EU, OECD and numerous governments and companies. He has served as a non-executive Director on globally listed companies, including as the Senior Independent Director and chairing all board committees. He is Chair of the core-econ.org initiative to transform economics, and is an honorary trustee of Comic Relief and other charities. His website is https://iangoldin.org/ and twitter address @ian_goldin.

Show Notes

Patrick has recently published After Brexit, What Next? Trade, Regulation and Economic Growth.

Ian has recently published Terra Incognita: 100 Maps to Survive the Next 100 Years.

During the debate, Patrick refers to economic models he has developed that suggest that Brexit will boost the UK’s GDP by 7%. He describes these findings and the assumptions they are based on in this article in The Guardian. You can read a London School of Economics critique of the Economists for Free Trade (which Patrick chairs) argument here.

During the debate, Ian refers to a consensus among leading economic institutions that Brexit will damage the UK economy. An OECD report estimates that the UK’s economy post Brexit will be lower by 5% by 2030. An IMF report estimates that Britain’s output will be 2.5% - 4% lower even with a free trade agreement. Britain’s own Treasury states that the country will be “permanently poorer” in all scenarios.

Both Patrick and Ian refer to the “Gravity Model of Trade” in their analysis of the importance of the EU to Britain as a trade partner. Patrick argues against this theory, which states that the proximity of neighbouring countries is a key determinant of trade success, while Ian defends it as common sense.

Ian suggests it is ironic that Patrick is leading the Brexit charge, given his past role as adviser to Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who helped lead the development of a single European market in the 80s. You can learn more about Thatcher’s push for economic integration in this Financial Times article.

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