Friday Focus: No winners in the Middle East — and Xi warns Trump against falling into the Thucydides Trap

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Rudyard and Janice start today’s show by taking stock of how intolerable the situation in the Middle East is becoming. Iran is asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, while surging inflation threatens to send shockwaves through the global supply chain. Tehran believes it can withstand Trump’s blockade longer than he can withstand its grip over the flow of energy. The missing piece of this story is just how dire conditions have become inside Iran, with massive unemployment and the hollowing out of the middle class. How long can the regime survive under these conditions?

In the second half of the show, Rudyard and Janice turn to Trump’s visit to China this week and Xi Jinping’s striking invocation of the “Thucydides Trap” to warn of the dangers of escalating strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China. Yet despite the symbolism and spectacle, the visit produced no major breakthroughs or concrete agreements. Meanwhile, European leaders and much of the Global South are increasingly viewing Xi as a more predictable and stable actor amid the constant disruption and volatility associated with Donald Trump. Checkmate China?