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We may be on the cusp of a deal between Iran and the U.S., as both sides appear to be losing interest in keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. But is this merely a ceasefire extension, with Iran’s nuclear program deferred to future negotiations?

If Iran ultimately gives up its enriched uranium, it will be seen as a win for Trump — but at a steep cost: Iran will have demonstrated that control over the Strait of Hormuz can effectively deter the world’s superpower. Rudyard argues that maintaining great-power status requires sacrifice to restore deterrence, something the current U.S. administration seems unwilling to do. Can America remain a great power without paying that price?

In the second half of the show, Rudyard and Janice discuss the Pope’s encyclical letter released this week — with one of Anthropic’s co-founders in attendance — in which he warned about AI’s threat to humanity. The Pope emphasized the dignity of work and cautioned that using AI to eliminate human labor is deeply misguided and anti-human. Are governments around the world prepared for the disruption that’s coming?